Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
33
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.033
- 40.2%Success rate39.2%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- 40.7%Third-down rate42.4%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.45Points / drive1.28
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 23/36 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 8 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 3 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/34 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
39.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37