Closing spread
KC -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.025
- 39.9%Success rate41.2%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.123
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- 38.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.36Points / drive1.42
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:35 | 10 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:48 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 14:35 | 11 | 66 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:44 | 10 | 82 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 5:12 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 4:07 | 10 | 56 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q3 13:42 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q3 12:46 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q3 9:07 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 7:01 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q3 4:52 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q3 3:58 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q3 1:57 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| KC | Q4 13:35 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q4 7:55 | 12 | 48 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| KC | Q4 2:58 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q4 1:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–17 |
| KC | Q4 0:58 | 6 | 13 | End of half | 21–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 21/36 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 12 | 67 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 28/48 | 341 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimble Anders | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 7 | 10 | 146 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 9 | 15 | 76 | 2 |
| Larry Parker | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Sylvester Morris | 1 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17