Closing spread
TEN -16
Total
35.5
Model margin
+10.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play-0.033
- 31.8%Success rate39.2%
- -0.208EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.158
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- 28.6%Third-down rate42.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 0.78Points / drive1.28
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 13/20 | 103 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Spergon Wynn | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/25 | 204 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 36 | 134 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Steve McNair | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
75.9%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.68