2000 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Doug Pederson

10·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TEN -16

Total

35.5

Model margin

+10.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTitans
  • -0.217EPA / play-0.033
  • 31.8%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.158
  • 5.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.28
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.194

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TEN
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:54947Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 7:3836Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:27542Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 3:3539Punt0–0
TENQ1 2:06648Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 14:17423Punt0–0
TENQ2 11:5635Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 10:2710Turnover0–0
TENQ2 10:14521Punt0–0
CLEQ2 7:11515Punt0–0
TENQ2 3:55754Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 1:23414End of half0–0
TENQ3 15:0037Opp touchdown7–0
CLEQ3 13:2400Opp touchdown7–0
TENQ3 13:24657Touchdown7–7
CLEQ3 10:51625Punt7–7
TENQ3 7:0221Turnover7–7
CLEQ3 6:1031Field goal10–7
TENQ3 5:17945Touchdown10–14
CLEQ3 0:1345Punt10–14
TENQ4 12:5436Field goal10–17
CLEQ4 10:4930Punt10–17
TENQ4 9:091544Touchdown10–24
CLEQ4 2:25518Turnover on downs10–24
TENQ4 1:243-3End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson13/2010301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White8273.40
Travis Prentice7142.00
Spergon Wynn133.00
Doug Pederson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamel White33300
Dennis Northcutt36300
Mark Campbell22110
Kevin Johnson2490
Aaron Shea1290
Travis Prentice1260

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair16/2520404

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George361343.73
Steve McNair8516.40
Rodney Thomas2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason67890
Frank Wycheck36550
Chris Sanders35290
Eddie George22150
Erron Kinney11100
Yancey Thigpen0200
Rodney Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +166.5%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

75.9%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.68