2000 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

13·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.033EPA / play+0.010
  • 39.2%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.066
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00865Field goal0–3
TENQ1 10:501054Touchdown7–3
JAXQ1 5:19674Touchdown7–10
TENQ1 2:07649Punt7–10
JAXQ2 14:07424Turnover7–10
TENQ2 12:00776Field goal10–10
JAXQ2 7:35617Punt10–10
TENQ2 3:39625Punt10–10
JAXQ2 0:59315End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:0036Punt10–10
JAXQ3 13:14832Field goal10–13
TENQ3 8:38522Punt10–13
JAXQ3 5:40525Turnover10–13
TENQ3 2:56615Field goal13–13
JAXQ4 14:5539Punt13–13
TENQ4 12:11841Punt13–13
JAXQ4 7:53412Punt13–13
TENQ4 6:10846Missed field goal13–13
JAXQ4 3:08961Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair13/2422800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George24692.91
Steve McNair5469.20
Rodney Thomas221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie George791090
Yancey Thigpen12370
Derrick Mason24330
Chris Sanders12310
Frank Wycheck26180

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell15/2523712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor241044.30
Anthony Johnson166.00
Mark Brunell310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell35530
Jimmy Smith35450
R.Jay Soward12450
Anthony Johnson11440
Kyle Brady35280
Fred Taylor46221
Alvis Whitted0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.91