Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.010
- 39.2%Success rate41.4%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 42.4%Third-down rate42.8%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/24 | 228 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 24 | 69 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 7 | 9 | 109 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 15/25 | 237 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 1 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91