2000 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

33·6

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 27°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.059
  • 38.4%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.36
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.111EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
MIAQ1 15:00964Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:38851Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 6:43421Punt7–0
BUFQ1 3:38646—7–0
BUFQ200Punt7–0
BUFQ2 15:0037Punt7–0
MIAQ2 13:173-2Punt7–0
BUFQ2 11:1937Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ2 9:46768Touchdown14–0
BUFQ2 6:153-11Turnover14–0
MIAQ2 4:343-4Field goal17–0
BUFQ2 3:0569Punt17–0
MIAQ2 1:31357Touchdown24–0
BUFQ2 0:503-3End of half24–0
BUFQ300Punt24–0
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt24–0
MIAQ3 13:09723Field goal27–0
BUFQ3 9:43715Turnover on downs27–0
MIAQ3 6:56856Field goal30–0
BUFQ3 2:2230Punt30–0
MIAQ3 1:4910Turnover30–0
BUFQ3 1:45445Touchdown30–6
MIAQ4 14:57512Punt30–6
BUFQ4 11:4220Turnover30–6
MIAQ4 11:28727Field goal33–6
BUFQ4 6:2955Punt33–6
MIAQ4 4:31411Punt33–6
BUFQ4 2:06416End of half33–6

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler13/2121430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith281003.60
J.J. Johnson6233.80
Autry Denson2105.00
Jay Fiedler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leslie Shepherd33671
Oronde Gadsden34431
Tony Martin12390
O.J. McDuffie11240
Lamar Smith45231
Autry Denson0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson6/184402
Doug Flutie2/93101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson12887.30
Antowain Smith10393.91
Doug Flutie11717.00
Rob Johnson3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds25310
Jeremy McDaniel28270
Peerless Price14110
Jay Riemersma17100
Antowain Smith0100
Shawn Bryson22-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10