Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.059
- 38.4%Success rate39.9%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 34.3%Third-down rate38.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.36
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.111EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/21 | 214 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 28 | 100 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 3 | 67 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Tony Martin | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 6/18 | 44 | 0 | 2 |
| Doug Flutie | 2/9 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 2 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10