Closing spread
IND -6
Total
45
Model margin
+3.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.123
- 39.9%Success rate45.8%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 38.0%Third-down rate46.8%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.36Points / drive2.04
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 12/22 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
| Doug Flutie | 6/12 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 4 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 13/24 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 3 |
| Lennox Gordon | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.29