2000 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

20·44

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

45

Model margin

+3.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapColts
  • -0.059EPA / play+0.123
  • 39.9%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.249
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate46.8%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 1.36Points / drive2.04
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.005

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–IND
INDQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:331068Field goal3–0
INDQ1 6:55946Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 2:28413Punt3–3
INDQ1 0:12818Field goal3–6
BUFQ2 12:1732Punt3–6
INDQ2 11:1631Punt3–6
BUFQ2 10:151130Field goal6–6
INDQ2 6:32615Punt6–6
BUFQ2 3:4640Punt6–6
INDQ2 1:44730Field goal6–9
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt6–9
INDQ3 12:55425Touchdown6–16
BUFQ3 10:5231Turnover6–16
INDQ3 9:2930Punt6–16
BUFQ3 8:24826Opp touchdown6–23
INDQ3 3:5800Opp touchdown6–23
BUFQ3 3:58774Touchdown12–23
INDQ3 0:351057Touchdown12–30
BUFQ4 10:1520Opp touchdown12–37
INDQ4 9:5100Opp touchdown12–37
BUFQ4 9:51977Touchdown20–37
INDQ4 6:2448Punt20–37
BUFQ4 4:4930Punt20–43
INDQ4 4:18113Touchdown20–44
BUFQ4 4:1133Punt20–44
INDQ4 2:38512End of half20–44

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson12/2218802
Doug Flutie6/128210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson15453.00
Rob Johnson2147.00
Sammy Morris571.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peerless Price48931
Shawn Bryson68750
Eric Moulds27470
Jeremy McDaniel23280
Sammy Morris46270
Jay Riemersma0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning13/2413200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James271114.13
Lennox Gordon2126.00
Terrence Wilkins100.00
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrence Wilkins22370
Jerome Pathon35310
Marvin Harrison27270
Edgerrin James34210
Marcus Pollard1390
Ken Dilger1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29