NFL Intelligence

2000 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Scott Mitchell

3·35

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -13

Total

Model margin

+6.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

Titans
Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTitans

-0.157EPA / play-0.033
34.1%Success rate39.2%
-0.180EPA / dropback+0.085
-0.129EPA / rush-0.158
8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
34.8%Third-down rate42.4%
34.6%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
0.82Points / drive1.28
2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
+0.014EPA / play allowed-0.194

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. TEN are 7-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2026 · W8	TEN @ CIN	36–43	CIN
2024 · W15	CIN @ TEN	37–27	CIN
2023 · W4	CIN @ TEN	3–27	TEN
2022 · W12	CIN @ TEN	20–16	CIN
2021 · playoffs	CIN @ TEN	19–16	CIN
2020 · W8	TEN @ CIN	20–31	CIN
2017 · W10	CIN @ TEN	20–24	TEN
2014 · W3	TEN @ CIN	7–33	CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	CIN–TEN
TEN	Q1 15:00	8	43	Punt	0–0
CIN	Q1 11:19	3	0	Punt	0–0
TEN	Q1 10:18	3	61	Touchdown	0–7
CIN	Q1 8:45	4	21	Punt	0–7
TEN	Q1 6:14	6	80	Touchdown	0–14
CIN	Q1 2:48	11	32	Field goal	3–14
TEN	Q2 13:57	10	69	Touchdown	3–21
CIN	Q2 8:57	6	18	Punt	3–21
TEN	Q2 6:16	3	9	Punt	3–21
CIN	Q2 4:42	5	27	Punt	3–21
TEN	Q2 2:31	9	30	End of half	3–21
CIN	Q3 15:00	5	5	Turnover on downs	3–21
TEN	Q3 13:42	3	4	Punt	3–21
CIN	Q3 12:44	3	-4	Punt	3–21
TEN	Q3 11:36	5	32	Touchdown	3–28
CIN	Q3 8:53	3	-7	Punt	3–28
TEN	Q3 7:04	3	-7	Turnover	3–28
CIN	Q3 5:30	6	33	Turnover on downs	3–28
TEN	Q3 3:42	3	5	Punt	3–28
CIN	Q3 1:27	4	4	Punt	3–28
TEN	Q3 0:12	3	9	Punt	3–28
CIN	Q4 14:06	5	25	Punt	3–28
TEN	Q4 12:00	6	77	Touchdown	3–35
CIN	Q4 8:23	6	17	Punt	3–35
TEN	Q4 4:50	9	31	End of half	3–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Scott Mitchell	12/26	131	0	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Corey Dillon	18	42	2.3
Scott Mitchell	2	14	7.0
Nicolas Luchey	1	7	7.0
Brandon Bennett	4	-3	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
Peter Warrick	2	6	32
Craig Yeast	1	2	27
Brandon Bennett	2	2	18
Marco Battaglia	1	5	15
Damon Griffin	1	1	9
Tony McGee	1	1	9
Steve Bush	1	1	8
Corey Dillon	2	3	8
Danny Farmer	1	3	5
Nicolas Luchey	0	1	0

Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD
Steve McNair	16/26	229	3
Neil O'Donnell	6/6	93	1
Frank Wycheck	1/1	23	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Eddie George	24	81	3.4	1
Rodney Thomas	5	23	4.6	0
Steve McNair	3	10	3.3	0
Derrick Mason	1	1	1.0	0
Neil O'Donnell	3	-3	-1.0	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Derrick Mason	5	9	92	0
Yancey Thigpen	2	2	89	1
Carl Pickens	2	3	56	0
Frank Wycheck	5	6	41	0
Chris Sanders	2	5	38	0
Eddie George	4	5	20	2
Erron Kinney	1	1	9	0
Rodney Thomas	1	1	-1	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.83
Home-field advantage+2.56
Quarterback adjustment-2.28
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin+6.12