Closing spread
TEN -13
Total
36
Model margin
+6.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.033
- 34.1%Success rate39.2%
- -0.180EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 0.82Points / drive1.28
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mitchell | 12/26 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 16/26 | 229 | 3 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 6/6 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1/1 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 2 | 89 | 1 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 5 | 20 | 2 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.12