Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.059
- 38.3%Success rate39.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.203
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 35.1%Third-down rate38.0%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.30Points / drive1.36
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 13/26 | 156 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Redmond | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tony Carter | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 6 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Curtis Jackson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 15/25 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1/3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 3 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.05