2000 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

13·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 35°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

Total

39

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.059
  • 38.3%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.203
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.36
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:5235Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:09617Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:3432Punt0–0
NEQ1 6:101049Field goal3–0
BUFQ200Punt3–0
BUFQ2 15:00611Punt3–0
NEQ2 11:4649Turnover on downs3–0
BUFQ2 9:50623Field goal3–3
NEQ2 6:19721Punt3–3
BUFQ2 2:08723End of half3–3
BUFQ3 15:0033Punt3–3
NEQ3 13:433-1Punt3–3
BUFQ3 11:551271Missed field goal3–3
NEQ3 4:50839Turnover on downs3–3
BUFQ3 0:07142—3–3
BUFQ400Turnover3–3
BUFQ4 15:0023Turnover3–3
NEQ4 14:2230Punt3–3
BUFQ4 13:29455Touchdown3–10
NEQ4 11:3139Punt3–10
BUFQ4 9:0437Punt3–10
NEQ4 7:25537Touchdown10–10
BUFQ4 4:453-4Punt10–10
NEQ4 3:383-16Punt10–10
BUFQ4 2:471036Punt10–10
NEQ4 0:31459Missed field goal10–10
NEOT00Turnover on downs10–10
NEOT525Turnover on downs10–10
BUFOT1470Missed field goal10–10
NEOT1479Field goal13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe13/2615600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.R. Redmond20663.30
Kevin Faulk14523.71
Tony Carter9343.80
Troy Brown22311.50
Drew Bledsoe2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn611700
Jermaine Wiggins34420
Tony Carter12210
Troy Brown23150
Kevin Faulk1180
Curtis Jackson0300

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie15/2519310
Rob Johnson1/3400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson19824.30
Doug Flutie9505.60
Sammy Morris11433.90
Antowain Smith133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peerless Price36680
Jeremy McDaniel34380
Shawn Bryson34340
Eric Moulds26260
Jay Riemersma14190
Sammy Morris33110
Sheldon Jackson1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.05