2000 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

24·0

Browns

Cleveland

QB Doug Pederson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 20°F · wind 35mph

Closing spread

TEN -16

Total

37

Model margin

-5.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBrowns
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.217
  • 39.2%Success rate31.8%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback-0.208
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.234
  • 7.9%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate28.6%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.28Points / drive0.78
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0038Turnover0–0
TENQ1 13:35613Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 10:1135Punt3–0
TENQ1 8:2733Punt3–0
TENQ1 6:5646Touchdown10–0
CLEQ1 5:4337Punt10–0
TENQ1 3:301376Touchdown17–0
CLEQ2 11:4930Punt17–0
TENQ2 9:59620Punt17–0
CLEQ2 6:15514Punt17–0
TENQ2 3:55947Turnover on downs17–0
CLEQ2 0:452-4End of half17–0
TENQ3 15:0058Punt17–0
CLEQ3 11:4738Punt17–0
TENQ3 10:22311Punt17–0
CLEQ3 7:5049Turnover on downs17–0
TENQ3 6:2847Turnover on downs17–0
CLEQ3 4:121033Turnover on downs17–0
TENQ3 0:4223Turnover17–0
CLEQ4 14:5540Punt17–0
TENQ4 14:3400Touchdown17–0
TENQ4 14:25358Touchdown24–0
CLEQ4 12:51518Punt24–0
TENQ4 10:42941Turnover on downs24–0
CLEQ4 4:34615Turnover on downs24–0
TENQ4 2:40412End of half24–0

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair10/187901
Neil O'Donnell2/22600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George341765.23
Rodney Thomas11272.50
Steve McNair294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason14330
Yancey Thigpen23270
Erron Kinney12150
Chris Sanders24130
Frank Wycheck3490
Eddie George1100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson13/307500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice12322.70
Doug Pederson11515.00
Jamel White430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Patten38260
Travis Prentice22130
Jamel White25120
Aaron Shea2680
Bobby Brown1460
Kevin Johnson2330
Darrin Chiaverini0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -163.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.5%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.56