Closing spread
TEN -16
Total
37
Model margin
-5.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.217
- 39.2%Success rate31.8%
- +0.085EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.234
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.5%
- 42.4%Third-down rate28.6%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.28Points / drive0.78
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 10/18 | 79 | 0 | 1 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2/2 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 34 | 176 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Rodney Thomas | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 13/30 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.5%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.56