2000 · DIV · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

24·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TEN -6

Total

34

Model margin

+3.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • -0.056EPA / play-0.033
  • 40.2%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 36.0%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.28
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.194

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
TENQ1 15:001258Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 7:4337Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:1138Punt0–7
BALQ1 3:39849Punt0–7
TENQ2 14:45521Punt0–7
BALQ2 11:22457Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 9:461256Missed field goal7–7
BALQ2 2:193-8Punt7–7
TENQ2 1:44512Missed field goal7–7
BALQ2 0:141-1End of half7–7
BALQ3 15:0056Punt7–7
TENQ3 12:37724Field goal7–10
BALQ3 8:1432Punt7–10
TENQ3 7:1038Punt7–10
BALQ3 5:39620Field goal10–10
TENQ3 3:05420Punt10–10
BALQ3 1:1935Punt10–10
TENQ3 0:23633Opp touchdown17–10
BALQ4 12:1200Opp touchdown17–10
TENQ4 12:1239Punt17–10
BALQ4 10:4436Punt17–10
TENQ4 9:05427Opp touchdown24–10
BALQ4 6:4100Opp touchdown24–10
TENQ4 6:411334Turnover on downs24–10
BALQ4 3:183-7Punt24–10
TENQ4 2:3477Turnover on downs24–10
BALQ4 1:202-2End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer5/1611700
Tony Banks0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis17472.81
Trent Dilfer410.30
Jermaine Lewis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe17560
Qadry Ismail36530
Brandon Stokley1280
Pat Johnson0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair24/4617601
Neil O'Donnell1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George27913.41
Steve McNair5316.20
Rodney Thomas144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason715880
Eddie George810520
Frank Wycheck56310
Yancey Thigpen37250
Erron Kinney1290
Carl Pickens0100
Chris Sanders0300
Steve McNair11-100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

39.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.85