Closing spread
NE -6
Total
40
Model margin
+8.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.017
- 39.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.107
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 34.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.05Points / drive1.32
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 14/26 | 167 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2/7 | 37 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Germany | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/21 | 107 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| David Patten | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.34