Closing spread
SF -3
Total
45
Model margin
+7.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.097
- 38.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- 38.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.58Points / drive1.93
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 42 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:55 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:48 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:21 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:37 | 10 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 11:59 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NO | Q2 7:25 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 11–14 |
| SF | Q2 6:13 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 11–21 |
| NO | Q2 4:46 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 11–21 |
| SF | Q2 2:08 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 11–21 |
| NO | Q2 1:35 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 14–21 |
| SF | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–21 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 14–21 |
| NO | Q3 12:23 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| SF | Q3 9:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NO | Q3 8:06 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| SF | Q3 3:07 | 10 | 32 | Punt | 24–21 |
| NO | Q4 13:33 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| SF | Q4 13:23 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| NO | Q4 11:06 | 7 | 79 | Field goal | 27–28 |
| SF | Q4 7:56 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 27–28 |
| NO | Q4 5:40 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 27–28 |
| SF | Q4 3:39 | 9 | 67 | End of half | 27–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 22/37 | 347 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 24 | 121 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 11 | 14 | 167 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 6 | 10 | 99 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/34 | 252 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 17 | 145 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 8 | 11 | 100 | 2 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.94