NFL Intelligence

2001 · Week 14 · Division

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

12·9

Bills

Buffalo

QB Alex Van Pelt

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 34°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

Model margin

-0.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

Bills
Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills

-0.017EPA / play-0.062
41.5%Success rate39.3%
+0.059EPA / dropback-0.032
-0.107EPA / rush-0.115
7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
41.6%Third-down rate34.4%
48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
1.32Points / drive1.05
2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
-0.079EPA / play allowed+0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2026 · W4	NE @ BUF	29–26	NE
2025 · W15	BUF @ NE	35–31	BUF
2025 · W5	NE @ BUF	23–20	NE
2024 · W18	BUF @ NE	16–23	NE
2024 · W16	NE @ BUF	21–24	BUF
2023 · W17	NE @ BUF	21–27	BUF
2023 · W7	BUF @ NE	25–29	NE
2022 · W18	NE @ BUF	23–35	BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	NE–BUF
BUF	Q1 15:00	3	3	Punt	0–0
NE	Q1 13:49	6	31	Punt	0–0
BUF	Q1 9:50	3	4	Punt	0–0
NE	Q1 8:11	8	28	Field goal	3–0
BUF	Q1 4:02	10	42	Punt	3–0
NE	Q2 14:05	4	30	Turnover	3–0
BUF	Q2 12:22	3	8	Punt	3–0
NE	Q2 11:20	6	30	Punt	3–0
BUF	Q2 7:17	3	6	Punt	3–0
NE	Q2 5:50	3	7	Punt	3–0
BUF	Q2 4:20	4	20	Punt	3–0
NE	Q2 2:45	6	50	Field goal	6–0
BUF	Q2 0:53	7	46	Missed field goal	6–0
NE	Q3 15:00	4	9	Turnover	6–0
BUF	Q3 13:19	3	7	Field goal	6–3
NE	Q3 11:13	4	4	Punt	6–3
BUF	Q3 9:04	8	49	Turnover	6–3
NE	Q3 5:32	3	1	Punt	6–3
BUF	Q3 3:24	15	76	Field goal	6–6
NE	Q4 10:38	3	-10	Punt	6–6
BUF	Q4 9:01	7	33	Field goal	6–9
NE	Q4 5:57	6	56	Field goal	9–9
BUF	Q4 2:45	3	9	Punt	9–9
NE	Q4 1:49	7	24	Punt	9–9
BUF	Q4 0:22	1	-7	End of half	9–9
BUF	OT	6	14	Punt	9–9
NE	OT	7	75	Field goal	12–9

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Tom Brady	19/35	237	0	1

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Antowain Smith	20	95	4.8
Tom Brady	3	13	4.3
Kevin Faulk	2	10	5.0
Troy Brown	1	9	9.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
David Patten	3	7	65
Troy Brown	5	8	62
J.R. Redmond	3	4	45
Terry Glenn	3	6	27
Jermaine Wiggins	1	2	25
Patrick Pass	1	1	13
Kevin Faulk	1	1	2
Rod Rutledge	0	1	0
Antowain Smith	1	1	-5

Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Alex Van Pelt	22/44	219	0	1

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Travis Henry	12	54	4.5
Shawn Bryson	14	38	2.7
Alex Van Pelt	2	6	3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
Peerless Price	4	10	67
Eric Moulds	6	15	50
Jay Riemersma	4	6	36
Travis Henry	1	1	14
Shawn Bryson	3	3	12
Sammy Morris	1	1	8
Reggie Germany	1	2	3
Avion Black	0	1	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
Home-field advantage+2.56
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin-0.27