Closing spread
NE -4
Total
38
Model margin
-0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.062
- 41.5%Success rate39.3%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.6%Third-down rate34.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.32Points / drive1.05
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/35 | 237 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 3 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 22/44 | 219 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 4 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 6 | 15 | 50 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Germany | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.27