Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.068
- 45.1%Success rate38.2%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.58
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/21 | 263 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2/2 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 4 | 116 | 2 |
| J.J. Stokes | 6 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 21/33 | 119 | 0 | 4 |
| Jeff Blake | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 10 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.81