2001 · Week 17 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

38·0

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.068
  • 45.1%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.203
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.58
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.009

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
SFQ1 15:00725Turnover0–0
NOQ1 11:305-2Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:3933Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:05218Turnover6–0
SFQ1 6:29156Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 6:213-2Punt7–0
SFQ1 4:41581Touchdown14–0
NOQ1 2:50828Turnover14–0
SFQ2 13:4539Punt14–0
NOQ2 12:14322Turnover14–0
SFQ2 10:54528Touchdown21–0
NOQ2 8:20511Turnover21–0
SFQ2 6:1939Punt21–0
NOQ2 4:14615Punt21–0
SFQ2 1:4144End of half21–0
NOQ3 15:00615Turnover21–0
SFQ3 11:38754Field goal24–0
NOQ3 7:2849Turnover on downs24–0
SFQ3 5:3633Punt24–0
NOQ3 4:0930Punt24–0
SFQ3 3:41857Touchdown31–0
NOQ4 14:56514Turnover31–0
SFQ4 12:28844Touchdown38–0
NOQ4 7:453-1Punt38–0
SFQ4 5:32934Turnover on downs38–0
NOQ4 0:311-1End of half38–0

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia14/2126340
Tim Rattay2/22100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevan Barlow16633.90
Garrison Hearst15573.80
Terry Jackson4184.51
Jeff Garcia331.00
Tim Rattay3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens241162
J.J. Stokes66791
Eric Johnson13240
Kevan Barlow12200
Garrison Hearst12170
Terry Jackson33161
Tai Streets23120

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks21/3311904
Jeff Blake0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams11333.00
Aaron Brooks461.50
Fred McAfee122.00
Jeff Blake1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Jackson1012610
Joe Horn37440
Boo Williams25120
Robert Wilson24100
Wane McGarity0100
Ricky Williams45-80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.81