Closing spread
GB -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.010
- 42.3%Success rate43.5%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.9%Third-down rate38.0%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.94Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. GB are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15/23 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 9 | 72 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 2 |
| T.J. Duckett | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/36 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 27 | 155 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 7 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 4 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 6 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Martin | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82