2002 · Week 1

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

34·37

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPackers
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.010
  • 42.3%Success rate43.5%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.67
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. GB are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–GB
ATLQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:531477Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 4:081284Touchdown7–3
GBQ2 11:2628Turnover7–3
ATLQ2 11:14538Touchdown14–3
GBQ2 8:43728Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 5:54112Turnover14–10
GBQ2 5:35439Missed field goal14–10
ATLQ2 4:16568Touchdown21–10
GBQ2 1:15861Field goal21–13
GBQ3 15:00459Touchdown21–20
ATLQ3 12:481476Field goal24–20
GBQ3 5:24772Touchdown24–27
ATLQ3 0:30412Punt24–27
GBQ4 13:1838Punt24–27
ATLQ4 11:43645Touchdown31–27
GBQ4 8:071476Touchdown31–34
ATLQ4 1:10530Field goal34–34
GBQ4 0:0500End of half34–34
GBOT812Punt34–34
ATLOT32Punt34–34
GBOT644Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick15/2320910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick9728.01
Warrick Dunn15694.62
T.J. Duckett6396.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Jackson46730
Shawn Jefferson12280
Brian Finneran24200
Warrick Dunn44190
Alge Crumpler22141
Reggie Kelly0100
T.J. Duckett1100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre25/3628420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green271555.70
Rondell Mealey5306.01
Javon Walker11111.00
Najeh Davenport284.00
Brett Favre263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver710780
Terry Glenn27600
Javon Walker44561
Ahman Green67420
Rondell Mealey11110
Bubba Franks1170
David Martin2271

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.82