2002 · Week 1 · Division
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.043
- 39.0%Success rate42.2%
- +0.038EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- 40.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.94Points / drive1.22
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/42 | 260 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 31 | 109 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 8 | 11 | 108 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 28/52 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Stephens | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.59