Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.036
- 40.0%Success rate42.3%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.197EPA / rush-0.038
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.7%Third-down rate42.9%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.94
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 12/24 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 26 | 84 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Dez White | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/28 | 166 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63