2002 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

14·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.036
  • 40.0%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.197EPA / rush-0.038
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.94
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ATLQ1 14:00414Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:3639Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:271367Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 1:3131Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 0:33838Touchdown0–7
CHIQ2 11:3330Punt0–7
ATLQ2 9:14520Punt0–7
CHIQ2 6:141086Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 1:10540Field goal7–10
ATLQ3 15:0023Turnover7–10
CHIQ3 14:1034Missed field goal7–10
ATLQ3 13:21324Turnover7–10
CHIQ3 12:28416Punt7–10
CHIQ3 10:22316Touchdown14–10
ATLQ3 9:27614Field goal14–13
CHIQ3 6:08854Turnover14–13
ATLQ3 1:4933Punt14–13
CHIQ3 0:33936Punt14–13
ATLQ4 10:3657Punt14–13
CHIQ4 7:5239Punt14–13
ATLQ4 6:085-17Punt14–13
CHIQ4 3:3039Punt14–13
ATLQ4 2:11544Missed field goal14–13
CHIQ4 0:5600End of half14–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller12/2414311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas26843.21
Dez White12121.00
Leon Johnson221.00
Jim Miller2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker59480
John Davis11370
Anthony Thomas22260
David Terrell11141
Fred Baxter1170
Stanley Pritchett1170
Dez White1640
Marcus Robinson0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick17/2816610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick10565.60
Warrick Dunn15342.30
T.J. Duckett5326.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran69760
Warrick Dunn45301
Alge Crumpler34280
Shawn Jefferson12140
Willie Jackson2690
Reggie Kelly0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63