Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
41
Model margin
-2.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.054
- 43.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.055
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- 43.1%Third-down rate40.1%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.69Points / drive1.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/35 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rohan Davey | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 9 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| David Patten | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/23 | 150 | 1 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3/10 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 1 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 4 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Kevin Swayne | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-7.65
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.27