2002 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

44·7

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

41

Model margin

-2.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • -0.000EPA / play+0.054
  • 43.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.055
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 43.1%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.88
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NEQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:14628Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:5010Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 8:4340Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:131186Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 1:5934Punt0–0
NEQ1 0:3645Punt0–0
NYJQ2 14:2847Punt0–0
NEQ2 11:54680Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 8:4839Punt7–0
NEQ2 6:411965Field goal10–0
NYJQ2 0:0100End of half10–0
NYJQ3 15:0031Opp touchdown17–0
NEQ3 13:3500Opp touchdown17–0
NYJQ3 13:353-5Punt17–0
NEQ3 11:371165Field goal20–0
NYJQ3 5:35654Opp touchdown27–0
NEQ3 2:4400Opp touchdown27–0
NYJQ3 2:44458Touchdown27–7
NEQ3 0:51875Touchdown34–7
NYJQ4 10:5449Turnover on downs34–7
NEQ4 10:0832Field goal37–7
NYJQ4 8:424-4Punt37–7
NEQ4 7:45737Touchdown44–7
NYJQ4 3:10639Turnover on downs44–7
NEQ4 1:0300End of half44–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3526921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith15664.40
Kevin Faulk10484.81
Patrick Pass4276.80
Tom Brady252.50
Rohan Davey2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown911940
David Patten48650
Deion Branch35651
Kevin Faulk22140
Donald Hayes12140
Cameron Cleeland34111
Antowain Smith1130
Daniel Graham11-60

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde15/2315011
Chad Pennington3/103900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chad Pennington199.00
Curtis Martin451.30
LaMont Jordan133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss19350
Wayne Chrebet12330
Anthony Becht44331
Kevin Swayne11210
LaMont Jordan22170
Curtis Martin33150
Laveranues Coles0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.65
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.27