2002 · Week 3

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

23·28

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.065
  • 47.1%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.110EPA / rush+0.062
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.76
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.007

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ DEN30–33DEN
2024 · playoffsDEN @ BUF7–31BUF
2023 · W10DEN @ BUF24–22DEN
2020 · W15BUF @ DEN48–19BUF
2019 · W12DEN @ BUF3–20BUF
2017 · W3DEN @ BUF16–26BUF
2014 · W14BUF @ DEN17–24DEN
2011 · W16DEN @ BUF14–40BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–DEN
DENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:59614Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:07535Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:003-5Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:433-1Punt0–0
BUFQ1 4:0520Opp touchdown0–7
DENQ1 3:3800Opp touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 3:38521Punt0–7
DENQ1 0:0000Touchdown0–7
DENQ2 15:001070Touchdown0–14
BUFQ2 9:513-4Punt0–14
DENQ2 8:5455Punt0–14
BUFQ2 7:491090Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 2:50426Punt7–14
BUFQ2 1:483-12Punt7–14
DENQ2 1:1537Missed field goal7–14
BUFQ3 15:00973Field goal10–14
DENQ3 9:5846Punt10–14
BUFQ3 7:5645Punt10–14
DENQ3 5:551285Touchdown10–21
BUFQ3 0:33627Punt10–21
DENQ4 13:16934Turnover on downs10–21
BUFQ4 8:18312Touchdown16–21
DENQ4 7:351270Touchdown16–28
BUFQ4 2:39770Touchdown23–28
DENQ4 1:1200End of half23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe27/4128320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry12352.91
Shawn Bryson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds917961
Peerless Price57870
Jay Riemersma44440
Travis Henry45330
Josh Reed22121
Dave Moore0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese19/3121120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis181035.71
Scottie Montgomery12828.00
Mike Anderson7284.00
Brian Griese540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith79941
Ashley Lelie23360
Ed McCaffrey38350
Mike Anderson24260
Scottie Montgomery1180
Clinton Portis1140
Patrick Hape1130
Shannon Sharpe0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.95