Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.065
- 47.1%Success rate49.4%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.110EPA / rush+0.062
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.9%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.76
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 27/41 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 9 | 17 | 96 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 5 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/31 | 211 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95