2002 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

3·30

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+9.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.017
  • 44.6%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.028
  • 9.8%Explosive rate11.0%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.85
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:00933Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:5432Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:3734Punt0–0
MIAQ1 7:16830Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 3:0933Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 1:37226Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 0:50315Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 14:5135Field goal0–13
NYJQ2 13:18831Field goal3–13
MIAQ2 9:34544Punt3–13
NYJQ2 6:19419Punt3–13
MIAQ2 4:0138Punt3–13
NYJQ2 2:5433Punt3–13
MIAQ2 1:451263Missed field goal3–13
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half3–13
MIAQ3 15:00928Punt3–13
NYJQ3 10:25933Punt3–13
MIAQ3 5:201286Field goal3–16
NYJQ4 11:49628Punt3–16
MIAQ4 8:43681Touchdown3–23
NYJQ4 4:543-3Turnover3–23
MIAQ4 4:03421Touchdown3–30
NYJQ4 1:55524Turnover3–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde14/2512502
Chad Pennington2/33201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin16432.70
LaMont Jordan4112.80
Santana Moss155.00
Vinny Testaverde1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet510640
Anthony Becht12210
Curtis Martin23200
Laveranues Coles25140
LaMont Jordan22100
Kevin Swayne0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler16/3018510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams241516.31
Travis Minor4215.31
Robert Edwards2168.00
James McKnight2126.00
Chris Chambers166.00
Jay Fiedler252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy McMichael58791
Chris Chambers47330
Oronde Gadsden15230
Ricky Williams23230
Dedric Ward23170
Robert Edwards1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +62.5%5.0%6.7%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

74.2%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.65
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.88