Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+9.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.017
- 44.6%Success rate45.0%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.028
- 9.8%Explosive rate11.0%
- 40.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 14/25 | 125 | 0 | 2 |
| Chad Pennington | 2/3 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/30 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 24 | 151 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Robert Edwards | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy McMichael | 5 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.2%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.88