2002 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
STL -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 23/32 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.