2002 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

3·28

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.269
  • 44.6%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.424
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive0.22
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–JAX
NYJQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:29273Opp touchdown6–1
NYJQ1 13:30933Punt6–1
JAXQ1 9:14844Punt6–1
NYJQ1 4:5833Punt6–1
JAXQ1 3:36615Punt6–1
NYJQ1 1:03838Turnover6–1
JAXQ2 11:57752Opp touchdown12–2
NYJQ2 7:46539Field goal15–2
JAXQ2 5:54954Missed field goal15–2
JAXQ3 15:0048Punt15–2
NYJQ3 12:5010Turnover15–2
JAXQ3 12:44446Opp touchdown21–3
NYJQ3 10:31960Turnover21–3
JAXQ3 4:50756Opp touchdown27–4
NYJQ3 0:32640Turnover on downs27–4
JAXQ4 14:0039Punt27–4
NYJQ4 11:361174Turnover27–4
JAXQ4 6:40528Punt27–4
NYJQ4 3:061058Turnover on downs27–4
JAXQ4 0:542-2End of half27–4

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington21/3428101
Mark Brunell10/1517300
Vinny Testaverde0/4000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor211426.81
Stacey Mack15704.73
Curtis Martin8445.50
LaMont Jordan12342.80
Mark Brunell2136.50
Chad Morton111.00
Laveranues Coles1-1-1.00
David Garrard2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles812970
Fred Taylor33950
Wayne Chrebet25420
LaMont Jordan34420
Bobby Shaw23280
Kevin Swayne24250
Anthony Becht24250
Kyle Brady11190
Tory Woodbury11130
Jimmy Smith13100
Stacey Mack1180
Pete Mitchell1180
Chris Luzar1150
Pat Johnson0100
Curtis Martin0100
Chad Morton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.65
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.35