Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.269
- 44.6%Success rate40.3%
- +0.132EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.424
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 40.1%Third-down rate33.9%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.88Points / drive0.22
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/34 | 281 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 10/15 | 173 | 0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 142 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Stacey Mack | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 3 |
| Curtis Martin | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 8 | 12 | 97 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 3 | 95 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tory Woodbury | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Luzar | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+7.65
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.35