Closing spread
KC -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.161EPA / play+0.054
- 47.5%Success rate44.6%
- +0.224EPA / dropback+0.132
- +0.083EPA / rush-0.055
- 11.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- 41.1%Third-down rate40.1%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 2.29Points / drive1.88
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.098EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/33 | 296 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 152 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 51 | 25.5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 9 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/29 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 119 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 8 | 14 | 116 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Kevin Swayne | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13