Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. BUF are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:20 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:02 | 6 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:04 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 0:39 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:48 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 8:11 | 5 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:42 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| BUF | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:49 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 21–14 |
| BUF | Q2 1:32 | 5 | 98 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–21 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 21–24 |
| LV | Q3 10:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q3 8:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| LV | Q3 8:29 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| BUF | Q3 6:17 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| LV | Q3 2:19 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 28–31 |
| BUF | Q3 0:15 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 28–31 |
| LV | Q4 12:52 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 35–31 |
| BUF | Q4 11:18 | 8 | 53 | Opp touchdown | 42–31 |
| LV | Q4 8:02 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 42–31 |
| BUF | Q4 8:02 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 42–31 |
| LV | Q4 6:32 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 49–31 |
| BUF | Q4 4:20 | 12 | 70 | Turnover | 49–31 |
| LV | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 49–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 32/53 | 417 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 7 | 12 | 126 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 14 | 112 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.