Closing spread
NYG -6
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.008
- 42.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.177
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- 42.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 1.94Points / drive1.46
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. NYG are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:50 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 9:23 | 19 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q2 14:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:16 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q2 10:12 | 12 | 83 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 4:31 | 6 | 53 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NYG | Q2 0:30 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–3 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q3 8:10 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NYG | Q3 3:38 | 13 | 67 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q4 11:39 | 6 | 94 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| NYG | Q4 8:06 | 12 | 63 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| ATL | Q4 3:22 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NYG | Q4 0:18 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 19/25 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 84 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 20/31 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 7 | 11 | 76 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.65