Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.226
- 47.1%Success rate33.0%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.307
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- 42.2%Third-down rate25.7%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.81Points / drive0.66
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:45 | 4 | 82 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 10:26 | 13 | 66 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q1 5:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BUF | Q1 3:59 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q1 0:05 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| BUF | Q2 10:31 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 9:08 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| BUF | Q2 5:04 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 43 | End of half | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q3 11:42 | 12 | 95 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q3 6:32 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q3 4:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q3 2:30 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q3 0:26 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q4 14:34 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 14:10 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| HOU | Q4 10:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–24 |
| BUF | Q4 8:25 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| HOU | Q4 3:55 | 13 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 31–24 |
| BUF | Q4 0:26 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 31–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/33 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 28 | 159 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 8 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 12/23 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 1 |
| James Allen | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 5 | 8 | 126 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 3 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.94