Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.017
- 47.1%Success rate45.0%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.0%
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.81Points / drive1.85
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/31 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 22 | 132 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 13/33 | 165 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 3 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Baker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45