2002 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

23·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ray Lucas

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.017
  • 47.1%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.0%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.85
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
BUFQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:26957Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 8:30511Turnover on downs0–7
MIAQ1 7:081-7Turnover0–7
BUFQ1 7:02954Field goal3–7
MIAQ1 1:39643Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 13:27276Touchdown10–7
MIAQ2 12:401357Field goal10–10
BUFQ2 4:5736Punt10–10
MIAQ2 3:1831Opp touchdown17–10
BUFQ2 2:2300Opp touchdown17–10
MIAQ2 2:23618Punt17–10
BUFQ2 1:02820End of half17–10
MIAQ3 15:00528Turnover17–10
BUFQ3 12:40827Punt17–10
MIAQ3 9:4143Punt17–10
BUFQ3 7:48658Field goal20–10
MIAQ3 4:16820Turnover on downs20–10
BUFQ3 0:3634Punt20–10
MIAQ4 13:35520Punt20–10
BUFQ4 11:2661Punt20–10
MIAQ4 9:33647Turnover20–10
BUFQ4 6:4830Punt20–10
MIAQ4 6:1740Punt20–10
BUFQ4 5:19933Field goal23–10
MIAQ4 1:1210Turnover23–10
BUFQ4 0:5600End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe15/3118210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry221326.00
Drew Bledsoe461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds38811
Peerless Price45250
Jay Riemersma12110
Josh Reed1290
Travis Henry1550
Charles Johnson0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ray Lucas13/3316514

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams25973.90
Ray Lucas5183.60
Robert Edwards294.50
Travis Minor284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight35420
Randy McMichael38351
Desmond Clark12260
Ricky Williams12220
Dedric Ward16150
Robert Edwards24120
Robert Baker0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.45