Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play+0.036
- 35.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.038
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 29.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.94
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Fasani | 6/18 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Weinke | 3/8 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Fasani | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/22 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 4/5 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 91 | 15.2 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Travis Jervey | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 5 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26