2002 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

0·30

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

35.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.177EPA / play+0.036
  • 35.3%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.219EPA / rush-0.038
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.94
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:14520Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:02824Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:57952Field goal0–3
CARQ1 0:1736Punt0–3
ATLQ2 13:5174Punt0–3
CARQ2 11:04614Punt0–3
ATLQ2 8:151056Touchdown0–10
CARQ2 2:40513Punt0–10
ATLQ2 0:45425End of half0–10
ATLQ3 15:0015104Touchdown0–17
CARQ3 5:08632Punt0–17
ATLQ3 2:29582Touchdown0–24
CARQ3 0:1320Turnover0–24
ATLQ3 0:0000Field goal0–24
ATLQ4 15:00717Field goal0–27
CARQ4 10:50745Turnover on downs0–27
ATLQ4 7:481034Field goal0–30
CARQ4 2:081271Turnover on downs0–30
ATLQ4 0:111-1End of half0–30

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randy Fasani6/1810001
Chris Weinke3/82600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Randy Fasani8587.30
Lamar Smith8192.40
Chris Weinke2157.50
Nick Goings2126.00
Dee Brown1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Karl Hankton11270
Wesley Walls14240
Muhsin Muhammad24210
Steve Smith16200
Kris Mangum13120
Lamar Smith12100
Nick Goings1250
Dee Brown0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick16/2217800
Doug Johnson4/53600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick69115.21
T.J. Duckett12473.92
Warrick Dunn8172.10
Travis Jervey8131.60
Doug Johnson310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson33380
Trevor Gaylor33380
Alge Crumpler22360
Reggie Kelly22250
Brian Kozlowski22210
Willie Jackson59190
T.J. Duckett1190
Warrick Dunn0200
Brian Finneran0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.26