2002 · Week 7

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

10·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

37

Model margin

+3.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapEagles
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.004
  • 42.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.043
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 41.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.81
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:042-2Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 11:4932Field goal0–3
TBQ1 10:29621Punt0–3
PHIQ1 7:24510Opp touchdown7–3
TBQ1 5:3900Opp touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 5:3910Turnover7–3
TBQ1 5:1832Punt7–3
PHIQ1 3:4734Punt7–3
TBQ1 1:4533Punt7–3
PHIQ1 0:3537Punt7–3
TBQ2 14:07833Punt7–3
PHIQ2 10:4336Punt7–3
TBQ2 9:283-1Punt7–3
PHIQ2 7:24618Punt7–3
TBQ2 4:0839Punt7–3
PHIQ2 3:10245Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 2:291044End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:0066Punt7–10
PHIQ3 11:181045Field goal7–13
TBQ3 6:22835Field goal10–13
PHIQ3 2:3935Punt10–13
TBQ3 0:59518Turnover10–13
PHIQ4 13:551138Touchdown10–20
TBQ4 8:181139Missed field goal10–20
PHIQ4 3:56469End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson19/3112401
Rob Johnson4/73100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman12494.10
Rob Johnson3103.30
Aaron Stecker188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson39380
Joe Jurevicius34350
Keenan McCardell57320
Rickey Dudley11180
Michael Pittman47150
Ken Dilger2490

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb12/2512711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley241526.30
Dorsey Levens294.50
Donovan McNabb640.71
Brian Westbrook1-1-1.00
James Thrash1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston410611
Dorsey Levens33370
James Thrash27170
Duce Staley22120
Chad Lewis0200
Cecil Martin1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.05