Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.006
- 42.3%Success rate39.0%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.94Points / drive1.94
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/24 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 23 | 142 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/35 | 192 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06