Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.006
- 42.3%Success rate39.0%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.94Points / drive1.94
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:09 | 5 | 34 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 10:41 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 9:08 | 11 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q1 2:43 | 11 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 12:00 | 8 | 56 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 9:22 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NO | Q2 3:54 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q2 2:49 | 4 | 34 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| NO | Q2 1:06 | 6 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q3 13:28 | 3 | 31 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| NO | Q3 12:00 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 21–18 |
| ATL | Q3 10:39 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 24–18 |
| NO | Q3 5:28 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 24–25 |
| ATL | Q3 2:30 | 6 | 64 | Field goal | 27–25 |
| NO | Q4 14:35 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 27–25 |
| ATL | Q4 12:38 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 34–25 |
| NO | Q4 5:57 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 34–28 |
| ATL | Q4 3:33 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 34–28 |
| NO | Q4 3:23 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 34–35 |
| ATL | Q4 2:20 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 37–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/24 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 23 | 142 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/35 | 192 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06