Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.054
- 42.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.055
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- 40.7%Third-down rate40.1%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.88
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 32/48 | 294 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 14 | 25 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| William Green | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 6 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 7 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Andre Davis | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Aaron Shea | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/26 | 183 | 2 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49