2002 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
31.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.177
- 42.2%Success rate35.3%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.219
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- 35.3%Third-down rate29.3%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.22Points / drive0.82
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:48 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:47 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:57 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:07 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:12 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 13:04 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 12:22 | 4 | 3 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 10:52 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 5:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 4:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 2:34 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 1:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 64 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| TB | Q3 8:44 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CAR | Q3 6:58 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| TB | Q3 1:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–9 |
| CAR | Q4 14:50 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–9 |
| TB | Q4 13:05 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| CAR | Q4 10:05 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 6–9 |
| TB | Q4 9:09 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 6–9 |
| CAR | Q4 6:50 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–9 |
| TB | Q4 4:15 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–9 |
| TB | Q4 3:01 | 3 | 12 | Field goal | 9–9 |
| CAR | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–9 |
| TB | Q4 1:20 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 12–9 |
| CAR | Q4 0:05 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 12–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 22/33 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaun King | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Fasani | 5/18 | 46 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Randy Fasani | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54