2002 · Week 9

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

24·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

+4.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.043
  • 45.1%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.019
  • +0.071EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.22
  • 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.206

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TB
MINQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
TBQ1 14:53426Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 13:121240Punt0–7
TBQ1 7:121381Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 1:033-1Punt0–14
TBQ1 0:0000Field goal0–14
TBQ2 15:00625Field goal0–17
MINQ2 12:19621Punt0–17
TBQ2 9:08571Touchdown0–24
MINQ2 7:16285Touchdown7–24
TBQ2 6:491053Missed field goal7–24
MINQ2 2:02836Field goal10–24
TBQ3 15:00421Punt10–24
MINQ3 12:39517Punt10–24
TBQ3 9:09792Touchdown10–31
MINQ3 5:10664Touchdown17–31
TBQ3 2:0800Turnover17–31
MINQ3 2:0710Turnover17–31
TBQ3 1:51646Touchdown17–38
MINQ4 13:3420Turnover17–38
TBQ4 13:10617Turnover on downs17–38
MINQ4 10:231278Touchdown24–38
TBQ4 4:40514Punt24–38
MINQ4 0:58319End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper18/2922502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett1011411.41
Moe Williams7436.12
Daunte Culpepper482.00
Randy Moss284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Kleinsasser33640
Randy Moss47410
Chris Walsh22400
Cedric James11290
Michael Bennett33270
Moe Williams55240
Derrick Alexander0200
Byron Chamberlain0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson24/3131350

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Stecker15959.00
Michael Pittman3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson9101332
Ken Dilger33610
Karl Williams45491
Michael Pittman12180
Reggie Barlow11130
Aaron Stecker11120
Rickey Dudley24111
Jameel Cook0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.20