2002 · Week 9
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.043
- 45.1%Success rate42.2%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.019
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- 43.6%Third-down rate35.3%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.22
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 18/29 | 225 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 10 | 114 | 11.4 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Cedric James | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/31 | 313 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 59 | 59.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 9 | 10 | 133 | 2 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Jameel Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20