Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.021
- 43.6%Success rate47.1%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 43.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.69Points / drive1.81
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/26 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 29 | 111 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 6 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 3 | 68 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 5 | 6 | 31 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 28/45 | 302 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 9 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81