2002 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ray Lucas

10·13

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.054
  • 45.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.055
  • 11.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.88
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:58311Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:0638Punt0–0
MIAQ1 7:573-4Turnover0–6
NYJQ1 6:4416Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 6:38428Punt0–7
NYJQ1 4:40642Punt0–7
MIAQ1 1:411164Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 11:311128Punt3–7
MIAQ2 5:0937Punt3–7
NYJQ2 2:51929Field goal3–10
MIAQ3 15:001071Turnover3–10
NYJQ3 9:4439Punt3–10
MIAQ3 7:51539Touchdown10–10
NYJQ3 5:29825Punt10–10
MIAQ3 0:25838Punt10–10
NYJQ4 10:2759Punt10–10
MIAQ4 8:3236Punt10–10
NYJQ4 7:261084Field goal10–13
MIAQ4 2:17619Turnover on downs10–13
NYJQ4 0:5600End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ray Lucas19/2822710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams20532.60
Ray Lucas2105.00
Robert Edwards166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight23520
Chris Chambers37480
Ricky Williams55360
Robert Edwards33260
Jed Weaver11240
Randy McMichael25180
Dedric Ward11110

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington17/2716700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin19743.91
LaMont Jordan6203.30
Chad Pennington420.50
Santana Moss1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles510800
Wayne Chrebet23300
Curtis Martin45180
Santana Moss24160
LaMont Jordan1260
Anthony Becht1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.5%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.27
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.25