Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.054
- 45.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.055
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- 37.0%Third-down rate40.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.88
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 19/28 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 17/27 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.27
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.25