Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.161
- 47.1%Success rate47.5%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.224
- -0.110EPA / rush+0.083
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.6%
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.1%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.81Points / drive2.29
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 24/36 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 24 | 126 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reed | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 12/20 | 197 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 31 | 104 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 4 | 93 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.93