2002 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
34.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play-0.043
- 35.3%Success rate42.2%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- 29.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 0.82Points / drive1.22
- 3.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 22/38 | 205 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 6 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 10 | 30 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 22/40 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 21 | 57 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 13 | 74 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.44