2002 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

10·23

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

TB -8

Total

34.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.177EPA / play-0.043
  • 35.3%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.219EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.1%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.22
  • 3.8%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.206

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:00739Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:511070Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 6:06312Punt7–0
CARQ1 4:10612Punt7–0
TBQ1 0:501386Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 9:2730Punt7–7
TBQ2 8:2029Turnover7–7
CARQ2 7:4634Field goal10–7
TBQ2 6:25759Field goal10–10
CARQ2 3:0033Turnover10–10
TBQ2 1:5730Punt10–10
CARQ2 1:301049Missed field goal10–10
CARQ3 15:0034Punt10–10
TBQ3 13:5751Punt10–10
CARQ3 10:4939Punt10–10
TBQ3 9:02410Punt10–10
CARQ3 7:1620Turnover10–10
TBQ3 6:46611Punt10–10
CARQ3 3:5232Turnover10–10
TBQ3 2:20219Touchdown10–17
CARQ3 1:2839Punt10–17
TBQ4 14:411152Field goal10–20
CARQ4 8:0310Turnover10–20
TBQ4 7:49718Field goal10–23
CARQ4 3:571369Turnover on downs10–23
TBQ4 0:4900End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete22/3820513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith15463.10
Dee Brown4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad39590
Dee Brown67440
Nick Goings44350
Steve Smith410301
Wesley Walls23210
Karl Hankton1160
Jermaine Wiggins1160
Lamar Smith1140
Kris Mangum0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson22/4025320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman21572.70
Brad Johnson461.50
Aaron Stecker2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson713741
Keenan McCardell48561
Joe Jurevicius22480
Rickey Dudley12210
Michael Pittman48210
Aaron Stecker22200
Ken Dilger0100
Karl Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.44