Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
51
Model margin
+4.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.036
- 39.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.038EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.038
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- 40.9%Third-down rate42.9%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.94Points / drive1.94
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 38 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:43 | 10 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 0:34 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q2 13:12 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 10:33 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:03 | 10 | 29 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 5:19 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 3:20 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 1:49 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:23 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 0–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q3 13:07 | 12 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q3 6:45 | 7 | 68 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q3 3:37 | 9 | 24 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| NO | Q4 14:18 | 6 | 84 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| ATL | Q4 11:54 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q4 9:06 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| ATL | Q4 8:29 | 8 | 29 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NO | Q4 3:56 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| ATL | Q4 0:47 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/31 | 279 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 3 | 5 | 134 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 7 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/23 | 160 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 26 | 90 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Gaylor | 3 | 4 | 100 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.07