2002 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

41·0

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+0.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.177
  • 42.3%Success rate35.3%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.219
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate29.3%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.94Points / drive0.82
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:411078Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 6:36624Opp touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 2:5400Opp touchdown7–0
CARQ1 2:54234Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 1:55553Touchdown14–0
CARQ1 0:273-10Punt14–0
ATLQ2 14:08950Touchdown21–0
CARQ2 8:478-7Punt21–0
ATLQ2 5:15780Touchdown28–0
CARQ2 1:1339Turnover28–0
ATLQ2 0:45312Turnover28–0
CARQ2 0:2936Punt28–0
ATLQ2 0:0700End of half28–0
ATLQ3 15:00839Punt28–0
CARQ3 10:01515Punt28–0
ATLQ3 8:39854Touchdown35–0
CARQ3 4:4210Turnover35–0
ATLQ3 4:24730Touchdown41–0
CARQ3 0:15314Turnover41–0
ATLQ4 14:1347Turnover on downs41–0
CARQ4 12:0257Punt41–0
ATLQ4 9:1659Punt41–0
ATLQ4 6:12617Turnover on downs41–0
CARQ4 2:30826Punt41–0
ATLQ4 0:2700End of half41–0

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick19/2427220
Doug Johnson1/1510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Duckett22663.01
Warrick Dunn15523.51
Mike Vick5204.00
Doug Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran441040
Warrick Dunn55531
Reggie Kelly22420
Alge Crumpler34251
Trevor Gaylor22191
Shawn Jefferson24130
Quentin McCord0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete6/116402
Chris Weinke3/82602
Randy Fasani4/72500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dee Brown4297.30
Lamar Smith8162.00
Randy Fasani11616.00
Rodney Peete11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Karl Hankton23160
Lamar Smith22160
Kris Mangum24140
Isaac Byrd1480
Dee Brown2580
Nick Goings1170
Muhsin Muhammad0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.77