Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+0.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.177
- 42.3%Success rate35.3%
- +0.092EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.219
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 42.9%Third-down rate29.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.94Points / drive0.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 19/24 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 22 | 66 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 4 | 4 | 104 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 6/11 | 64 | 0 | 2 |
| Chris Weinke | 3/8 | 26 | 0 | 2 |
| Randy Fasani | 4/7 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Brown | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Randy Fasani | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Hankton | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.77