2002 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

7·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.043
  • 43.5%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.146
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.22
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.206

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 11-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TB
GBQ1 15:00637Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:05747Turnover0–0
GBQ1 8:41630Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 5:44827Punt7–0
GBQ1 1:09518Punt7–0
TBQ2 13:3039Punt7–0
GBQ2 11:3632Punt7–0
TBQ2 10:0434Punt7–0
GBQ2 8:2334Punt7–0
TBQ2 7:10522Punt7–0
GBQ2 4:02616Punt7–0
TBQ2 0:23239Field goal7–3
TBQ3 15:00610Punt7–3
GBQ3 12:0336Punt7–3
TBQ3 10:30637Field goal7–6
GBQ3 7:3310Turnover7–6
TBQ3 7:13418Touchdown7–14
GBQ3 5:00953Turnover7–14
TBQ3 0:24414Punt7–14
GBQ4 13:28411Punt7–14
TBQ4 10:51511Punt7–14
GBQ4 8:5810Turnover7–14
TBQ4 8:4232Touchdown7–21
GBQ4 7:241157Turnover7–21
TBQ4 2:5536Punt7–21
GBQ4 1:48733End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre20/3819614

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green18563.10
Brett Favre11717.00
Donald Driver11616.00
Tony Fisher372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn411610
Ahman Green46400
Donald Driver310321
Bubba Franks45290
Tony Fisher2280
Javon Walker1270

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson15/2513420
Rob Johnson3/53301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman13503.80
Rob Johnson284.00
Brad Johnson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson27480
Joe Jurevicius56411
Michael Pittman22230
Keenan McCardell36180
Ken Dilger34171
Karl Williams11160
Rickey Dudley0100
Aaron Stecker12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83