2002 · Week 12
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.043
- 43.5%Success rate42.2%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- 38.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.67Points / drive1.22
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/38 | 196 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 10 | 32 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/25 | 134 | 2 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83