Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.060
- 42.3%Success rate45.1%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.038EPA / rush+0.071
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 42.9%Third-down rate43.6%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.94Points / drive1.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/28 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10 | 173 | 17.3 | 2 |
| T.J. Duckett | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 5 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/43 | 266 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Nick Davis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 9 | 16 | 134 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
6.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45