2002 · Week 13

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

30·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapVikings
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.060
  • 42.3%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.038EPA / rush+0.071
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 42.9%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.93
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.049EPA / play allowed+0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–MIN
MINQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 9:3834Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:54518Punt0–7
ATLQ1 6:09931Punt0–7
MINQ1 1:04827Punt0–7
ATLQ2 13:09240Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 12:48526Turnover7–7
ATLQ2 10:21340Turnover7–7
MINQ2 9:1730Punt7–7
ATLQ2 8:5649Punt7–7
MINQ2 7:093-2Turnover7–7
ATLQ2 6:151-9Turnover7–7
MINQ2 6:05736Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 2:40677Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 0:37312Turnover14–14
ATLQ2 0:0410End of half14–14
ATLQ3 15:0034Punt14–14
MINQ3 13:53514Punt14–14
ATLQ3 11:27518Punt14–14
MINQ3 9:37517Punt14–14
ATLQ3 6:573-2Punt14–14
MINQ3 5:59546Touchdown14–21
ATLQ3 3:19661Touchdown21–21
MINQ3 1:0034Punt21–21
ATLQ4 14:50524Turnover21–21
MINQ4 12:37940Missed field goal21–21
ATLQ4 7:26734Field goal24–21
MINQ4 3:331065Field goal24–24
ATLQ4 0:1120End of half24–24
MINOT3-9Punt24–24
ATLOT248Touchdown30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick11/2817311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick1017317.32
T.J. Duckett11373.40
Warrick Dunn5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran581141
Alge Crumpler34360
Reggie Kelly23130
Trevor Gaylor12100
Darrin Chiaverini0100
Warrick Dunn0100
Shawn Jefferson0500
Brian Kozlowski0100
T.J. Duckett0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper23/4326613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett18864.81
Daunte Culpepper7355.01
Nick Davis11111.00
Jimmy Kleinsasser144.00
Moe Williams530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss9161340
D'Wayne Bates59700
Jimmy Kleinsasser34300
Chris Walsh22170
Byron Chamberlain1170
Michael Bennett2260
Hunter Goodwin1121
Moe Williams0300
Kelly Campbell0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

6.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45