Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
37
Model margin
+4.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.021
- 45.0%Success rate47.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.110
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- 37.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.85Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:20 | 1 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:11 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q1 6:01 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| BUF | Q1 0:06 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–3 |
| MIA | Q2 13:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–3 |
| BUF | Q2 10:51 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–3 |
| MIA | Q2 9:28 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–3 |
| BUF | Q2 8:01 | 10 | 24 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIA | Q2 3:37 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| BUF | Q2 0:38 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 13:27 | 4 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 12:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 10:59 | 9 | 58 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q3 7:01 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q3 5:33 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| MIA | Q3 4:35 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 21–30 |
| BUF | Q3 2:10 | 1 | 57 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| MIA | Q3 2:01 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 21–31 |
| BUF | Q4 14:49 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–38 |
| MIA | Q4 10:30 | 7 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 21–38 |
| BUF | Q4 7:13 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 21–38 |
| MIA | Q4 2:04 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 21–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 6/11 | 40 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 5/9 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 228 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/27 | 306 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 35 | 151 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 7 | 130 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 3 | 93 | 2 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67