Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:55 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:07 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:58 | 10 | 68 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:56 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:32 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 6:01 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:01 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 1:58 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:40 | 3 | 11 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:59 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 7:51 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 4:35 | 4 | 12 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:32 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 12:14 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:44 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| LV | Q4 5:32 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 20–26 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:12 | 9 | 28 | Turnover | 20–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/34 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 10 | 13 | 158 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.