Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/34 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 10 | 13 | 158 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.