2002 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.006
- 42.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 35.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.22Points / drive1.94
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:49 | 6 | -1 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:46 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 4:09 | 3 | -8 | Safety | 2–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:17 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 2–0 |
| NO | Q1 0:14 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 2–6 |
| TB | Q2 10:02 | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 9–6 |
| NO | Q2 6:51 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 9–6 |
| TB | Q2 5:29 | 7 | 26 | Missed field goal | 9–6 |
| NO | Q2 1:59 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 9–6 |
| TB | Q2 1:27 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 9–6 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 9–13 |
| TB | Q3 12:56 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 9–13 |
| NO | Q3 12:46 | 1 | -4 | Turnover | 9–13 |
| TB | Q3 12:39 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 9–13 |
| NO | Q3 10:31 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 9–20 |
| TB | Q3 9:00 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 12–20 |
| NO | Q3 5:04 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 12–20 |
| TB | Q3 1:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 12–20 |
| NO | Q3 0:11 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 12–20 |
| TB | Q4 11:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 12–20 |
| NO | Q4 11:22 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 12–23 |
| TB | Q4 9:47 | 18 | 64 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| NO | Q4 2:49 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 28/44 | 276 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 11 | 14 | 107 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 13 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 9/25 | 155 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 27 | 99 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.46