Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.000
- 47.1%Success rate43.6%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.064
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.1%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.81Points / drive1.69
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 11:16 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 8:06 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q1 3:35 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 3:22 | 2 | 9 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q1 3:14 | 15 | 85 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| NE | Q2 10:20 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| BUF | Q2 2:31 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–20 |
| NE | Q2 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–20 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| NE | Q3 7:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BUF | Q3 6:08 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NE | Q3 4:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| BUF | Q3 1:54 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 10–20 |
| NE | Q4 14:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–20 |
| BUF | Q4 13:35 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| NE | Q4 13:23 | 7 | 28 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| BUF | Q4 10:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| NE | Q4 9:52 | 3 | 1 | Missed field goal | 10–27 |
| BUF | Q4 8:54 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| NE | Q4 7:37 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–27 |
| BUF | Q4 5:48 | 18 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 32/51 | 328 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 9 | 16 | 105 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 13 | 63 | 2 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/27 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.56