Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.054
- 49.4%Success rate44.6%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.132
- +0.062EPA / rush-0.055
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- 37.9%Third-down rate40.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.76Points / drive1.88
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 78 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:59 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q2 14:57 | 13 | 70 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–6 |
| DEN | Q2 7:26 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 6–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–6 |
| DEN | Q2 1:47 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 13–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 34 | End of half | 13–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| DEN | Q3 10:21 | 6 | 25 | Missed field goal | 13–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:16 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 13–9 |
| DEN | Q3 6:11 | 5 | 24 | Missed field goal | 13–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:08 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q4 14:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:15 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| DEN | Q4 5:56 | 14 | 66 | Turnover | 13–19 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:23 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 13–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 28/37 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 24 | 103 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 9 | 12 | 100 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 6 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/30 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 6 | 10 | 126 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| James Dearth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.59