Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. BUF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 11/33 | 107 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 22 | 144 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.