2002 · Week 15

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Drew Brees

13·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 36°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LAC @ BUF16–24BUF
2023 · W16BUF @ LAC24–22BUF
2020 · W12LAC @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W2LAC @ BUF31–20CHARGERS
2017 · W11BUF @ LAC24–54CHARGERS
2014 · W3SD @ BUF22–10CHARGERS
2011 · W14BUF @ SD10–37CHARGERS
2008 · W7SD @ BUF14–23BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:203-5Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:57521Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:20440Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 6:49937Touchdown3–7
LACQ1 3:1335Punt3–7
BUFQ1 1:59516Punt3–7
LACQ1 0:22762Missed field goal3–7
BUFQ2 12:02720Field goal3–10
LACQ2 9:051048Touchdown10–10
BUFQ2 3:21727Field goal10–13
LACQ2 1:0836Punt10–13
LACQ3 15:0089Punt10–13
BUFQ3 9:26112Turnover10–13
LACQ3 9:14720Turnover on downs10–13
BUFQ3 6:30411Punt10–13
LACQ3 5:1339Punt10–13
BUFQ3 3:0437Punt10–13
LACQ3 2:00544Punt10–13
BUFQ4 14:4532Punt10–13
LACQ4 13:063-1Punt10–13
BUFQ4 12:01828Punt10–13
LACQ4 8:23458Field goal13–13
BUFQ4 5:4534Punt13–13
LACQ4 3:3730Punt13–13
BUFQ4 3:04764Touchdown13–20
LACQ4 0:52613End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe11/3310700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry221446.52
Eric Moulds177.00
Drew Bledsoe100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds512610
Peerless Price38310
Dave Moore1170
Jay Riemersma1130
Charles Johnson0100
Travis Henry0100
Josh Reed0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.70

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.