Closing spread
ATL -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.036
- 44.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.038
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- 43.0%Third-down rate42.9%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.60Points / drive1.94
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.049EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/31 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 127 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 9 | 10 | 143 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 3 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
| James Williams | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/38 | 240 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 101 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alge Crumpler | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 4 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96