2002 · Week 15
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -9.5
Total
37
Model margin
-1.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.148
- 42.2%Success rate34.3%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- 35.3%Third-down rate29.8%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.22Points / drive0.96
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/41 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 10/21 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveion Cason | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Rafael Cooper | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.80