Closing spread
ATL -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.036
- 34.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.038
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 29.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 0.96Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 11/33 | 149 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Rafael Cooper | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/38 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 30 | 132 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| George Layne | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin McCord | 7 | 9 | 182 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 2 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86