2002 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Mike McMahon

15·36

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.036
  • 34.3%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.038
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.94
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ATL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ATL
DETQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:251178Field goal0–3
DETQ1 7:50854Missed field goal0–3
ATLQ1 4:51933Turnover0–3
DETQ1 2:03628Punt0–3
ATLQ2 14:2238Punt0–3
DETQ2 12:5749Punt0–3
ATLQ2 11:141073Field goal0–6
DETQ2 6:06614Punt0–6
ATLQ2 3:0946Punt0–6
DETQ2 1:46221Turnover0–6
ATLQ2 1:16763Touchdown0–13
DETQ2 0:1716End of half0–13
ATLQ3 15:00779Field goal0–16
DETQ3 10:5631Turnover0–16
ATLQ3 9:58420Field goal0–19
DETQ3 7:20833Punt0–19
ATLQ3 3:561064Field goal0–22
DETQ4 13:31615Touchdown8–22
ATLQ4 9:53114Turnover8–22
DETQ4 9:41215Touchdown15–22
ATLQ4 9:311150Touchdown15–29
DETQ4 3:4930Turnover15–29
ATLQ4 3:27447Touchdown15–36
DETQ4 1:514-10Turnover on downs15–36
ATLQ4 1:2300End of half15–36

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon11/3314923

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart12342.80
Mike McMahon22512.50
Aveion Cason11717.00
Rafael Cooper252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder24600
Scotty Anderson15180
Aveion Cason12151
James Stewart36101
Mikhael Ricks2570
Germane Crowell0200
Larry Foster0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick20/3833721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn301324.41
Mike Vick8425.30
George Layne155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin McCord791821
Brian Finneran37541
Warrick Dunn56370
Reggie Kelly11210
Trevor Gaylor210160
Brian Kozlowski0100
Alge Crumpler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.86